ASML, the lithography leader, reported Q1 earnings today:
Revenue €6.746B, up 91% year over year, up 5% sequentially, fourth consecutive quarterly record.
Gross margin 50.6%, up 1.6 percentage points year over year, down 0.9 percentage points sequentially.
Operating income €2.205B, up 181% year over year, up 4% sequentially, second consecutive quarterly record; operating margin 32.7%.
Net income €1.956B, up 181% year over year, up 8% sequentially, second consecutive quarterly record; net margin 29%.
Backlog €38.9B.
Q1 share repurchases of €400M.
On lithography systems, Q1 shipped 100 units:
EUV: 17 units, revenue €2.885B, 54% of system revenue, ASP €170M.
ArF immersion: 25 units, revenue €1.603B, 30% of system revenue, ASP €64.1M.
ArF dry: 7 units, revenue €160M, 3% of system revenue, ASP €22.89M.
KrF: 43 units, revenue €481M, 9% of system revenue, ASP €11.18M.
ASML's EUV revenue trajectory mirrors TSMC's advanced-node (7nm/5nm) trend; notably, both have now surpassed 50%.
This quarter, memory's sharp capex cut pushed memory revenue share down to 30%, logic up to 70%. Meanwhile Q1 net bookings were weak at €3.752B, down 46% year over year and 41% sequentially, raising concerns. Breaking down bookings, memory accounted for only 21%, down 63% sequentially, confirming memory's broad contraction.
Logic is also affected. However, ASML noted strong mainland China mature-node DUV demand; mainland China represents 20% of the €38.9B backlog. Yet Q1 mainland China revenue share was 8%, a low since Q4 2019, likely reflecting pull-forward ordering; subsequent quarters should improve. While ASML says export controls currently target only NXT:2000 and above, NXT:1980 unaffected, the Netherlands has not made a final decision.
Outlook:
Q2 revenue guided to €6.5B–€7B, up 20%–29% year over year. Full-year revenue ~€26.5B, up 25% year over year, with EUV up 40%, non-EUV up 30%, and installed base business up 5%.
Q2 gross margin 50%-51%; full-year gross margin slightly up year over year, EUV/DUV gross margins slightly up, installed base margin down year over year due to weaker upgrade business.
Expects full-year EUV shipments of 60 units, DUV 375 units, of which 25% immersion.
Future annual capacity target of 90 EUV / 600 DUV on track.
2025 gross margin 54%-56%, 2030 gross margin 56%-60% on track.
Overall, ASML delivering 25% full-year growth in a semiconductor downcycle is remarkable. Let's see if TSMC management can hold the full-year growth target tomorrow.