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Microsoft / MSFT

Microsoft Series II: Inside the Understated Digital Leader Now Ranked No. 1 by Market Value

Soon after the first Microsoft profile was published, the company crossed $2.5T in market value and became the world's most valuable company.

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Decades of channel sales experience have given Microsoft an inherently strong To B/G DNA. Since its founding, Microsoft has launched countless products, from the early UNIX OS and MS-DOS to today's complete IaaS+PaaS+SaaS cloud portfolio, undergoing innumerable technology iterations and business model upgrades, yet its software company gene remains unchanged.

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Starting with FY2016 when it wrote off Nokia, Microsoft updated its segment reporting to three pillars: Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. FY2021 revenue for the three segments was $53.915B, $60.08B, and $54.093B, up 16.2%, 24.2%, and 12.1% year over year, respectively. Intelligent Cloud has been the largest revenue segment for two consecutive fiscal years, with growth significantly outpacing the other two.

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By product composition, Productivity leans PaaS+SaaS, led by Office, Dynamics, LinkedIn, and Power tools; Intelligent Cloud leans IaaS+PaaS, led by Azure, Windows Server, Visual Studio, and SQL Server; More Personal Computing is primarily consumer-facing, including Microsoft's few hardware businesses Xbox and Surface, though future hardware monetization may trend SaaS, and Windows itself may explore SaaS transformation via Cloud PC.

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Productivity, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing together cover IaaS+PaaS+SaaS, and the synergy among products creates a powerful ecosystem moat and a perfect commercial flywheel, forming Microsoft's core competitive advantage.

The most direct evidence: operating income growth for all three segments far exceeds revenue growth, driving Microsoft's operating income and pre-tax income growth to outpace revenue growth for six consecutive fiscal years. In FY2021, revenue grew 18%, operating income grew 32%, and pre-tax net income grew 34%.

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Productivity Is Microsoft's Soul: Office

Microsoft's Productivity business consists mainly of Office, Dynamics, and LinkedIn. For the masses, Office, launched in 1990, is ubiquitous; Word, Excel, and PowerPoint are the most common workplace software. Gartner estimates Microsoft Office held over 90% share of the productivity suites market in 2020, far ahead of Google Workspace (G Suite), an absolute monopoly. Reviewing Office's history, after Office 95 debuted, it largely kept a 2-3 year update cadence aligned with major Windows releases, sold as a perpetual license with no feature updates after purchase; upgrading required buying the new version at full price. Office 365, officially launched in 2011, disrupted the perpetual model, introducing monthly/annual subscriptions with perpetual feature updates, a milestone in Microsoft's shift to SaaS. In 2020, Microsoft rebranded Office 365 to Microsoft 365, bundling Windows benefits and a security suite.

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In recent years, the global digital transformation wave has fueled sustained high growth for Office 365 across both B2B and B2C. On the B2B side, Office 365 Commercial seats have grown double digits year over year since FY2019, and Office 365 Commercial revenue has sustained 20%+ year-over-year growth. On the consumer side, Microsoft 365 subscriptions have grown sequentially, with the latest quarter showing cumulative subscriptions surpassing 54.1 million, up 19% year over year. Vertically, although the perpetual Office (Office licensed on-premises) continues to be updated and Office 2021 recently launched, Office 365's revenue scale and growth have significantly outpaced the traditional perpetual version. On the B2B side, during FY20Q2-FY22Q1, Office Commercial products, driven mainly by perpetual Office, saw revenue decline year over year for eight consecutive quarters, often by double digits. On the consumer side, with pricing largely unchanged, Microsoft 365 subscription growth (19%) exceeded the growth of Office Consumer products and cloud services (10%, FY22Q1), the proxy for total consumer Office revenue.

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Based on financial statement decomposition, Microsoft's FY2021 Office revenue reached $39.873B, up 13% year over year, accounting for 24% of total revenue and making it the largest revenue source. Quarterly performance shows Office's SaaS nature and extremely high user stickiness deliver consistently stable year-over-year growth, with acceleration evident after the pandemic onset.

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Originally published on the WeChat public account Eric有话说.