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AMD Q4 Earnings Review: Data Center CPU Growth Stays Strong, but GPU Momentum Looks Soft in the First Half

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AMD did not provide a specific next-quarter AI GPU revenue guide this quarter.

AMD Q4 Results:

  • Revenue was $7.658B, up 24% year over year and 12% sequentially, slightly above the prior guide of $7.5B. Full-year 2024 revenue was $25.785B, up 14% year over year.

  • GAAP gross margin was 50.7%, non-GAAP gross margin was 54.1%, both up modestly sequentially.

  • GAAP operating income was $871M, the highest since Q1 2022. Non-GAAP operating income was $2.026B, up 44% year over year. Q1 2025 non-GAAP operating income is guided to $1.7B, up 53% year over year.

  • GAAP net income was $482M, down 28% year over year. Non-GAAP net income was $1.777B, up 42% year over year, setting a new all-time high. Full-year 2024 GAAP net income was $1.641B, up 92% year over year. Non-GAAP net income was $5.42B, up 26% year over year. Q1 2025 non-GAAP net income is guided to $1.529B, up 51% year over year.

  • Operating cash flow was $1.299B, a new all-time high. Free cash flow was $1.091B, a new all-time high.

  • Q4 share repurchases were $256M, with $4.7B remaining under the authorization.

  • The ZT acquisition has received regulatory approvals in Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan, and is expected to close in the first half of 2025.

  • Full-year 2024 revenue mix: U.S. 34%, mainland China 24%, Singapore 14%, Taiwan 13%, Japan 7%, Europe 6%.

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By Segment Q4:

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  • Data Center revenue was $3.859B, up 69% year over year, accounting for 50% of revenue. Operating income was $1.157B, up 74% year over year, remaining AMD's most profitable business.

    On the CPU front, Zen 5 EPYC Turin ramp and strong Zen 4 EPYC demand drove continued server CPU share gains. Q4 EPYC revenue grew double digits both year over year and sequentially ($2.1B). The trend of data center CPU revenue outperforming GPU is expected to persist through 2025H1. In cloud, EPYC holds over 50% share at top hyperscale customers, with 1,000+ public cloud instances deployed. In enterprise, cloud instances running EPYC doubled sequentially.

    On the GPU front, data center GPU revenue grew only marginally sequentially ($1.7B). Full-year 2024 data center GPU revenue was just over $5B, missing market expectations. Q4 data center CPU revenue outperformed GPU, and this trend will continue through 2025H1. MI300X continues to be deployed at cloud customers, MI325X has entered volume production, MI350 sampling to lead customers has begun, with volume production planned for mid-2025. MI400 (rack-scale) is slated for 2026. Instinct platform deployments are expected to keep growing in 2025. ASIC represents only a small portion of the market, and AMD can also build ASICs.

    2025 data center CPU and GPU are both expected to grow high double digits year over year. Data center GPU revenue is expected to reach $10B in a few years. The 2028 AI accelerator chip TAM is $500B, with a long-term CAGR of 60%.

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  • Embedded revenue was $923M, down 13% year over year, the second consecutive quarter of decline, accounting for 12% of revenue. Operating income was $362M, down 21% year over year. The overall FPGA market recovery is slower than expected. Defense, test, and simulation demand is strong, while communications and industrial remain weak. Adaptive computing share continues to rise. Full-year design wins were $14B, up 25%+ year over year.

  • Client revenue was $2.313B, up 58% year over year, accounting for 30% of revenue. Operating income was $446M, with an operating margin of 19%, up 4 percentage points sequentially, though still below Intel.

    Q4 Client revenue growth was unrelated to pre-tariff pull-forward. PC revenue share has grown for four consecutive quarters. Desktop Ryzen demand is robust, with retail channel share exceeding 70% in some channels. Notebook Ryzen AI 300 series continues to ramp. A comprehensive commercial PC partnership with Dell was announced, with shipments starting in the second half of 2025.2025 PC TAM is expected to grow mid-single digits year over year, and the company's growth will exceed the industry average.

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  • Gaming revenue was $563M, down 59% year over year, the ninth consecutive quarter of decline, accounting for 7% of revenue. Operating income was $50M, down 78% year over year. Semi-custom revenue declined year over year again. Sony and Microsoft consoles continue to destock. Q4 cumulative current-gen console shipments exceeded 100M units. Console inventory is expected to gradually normalize in 2025. Gaming GPU revenue declined year over year again. The first RDNA 4 graphics card, the XT 9070, is expected to go on sale in early March.

  • Q1 2025 revenue is guided to $7.1B, up 30% year over year and down 7% sequentially. Data center sequential decline is near the corporate average. Client and Embedded sequential declines are larger than average. Gaming sequential decline is smaller. Full-year 2025 data center and Client are expected to grow high double digits year over year. Gaming and Embedded are expected to grow slightly year over year. Full-year 2025 revenue and net income are expected to grow double digits. Gross margin is expected to improve in the second half as data center volumes ramp.

Segment Reporting Realignment Starting 2025Q1: Client and Gaming Combined

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Revisiting the Previous Quarter's View:

Current full-year revenue looks to be around $25.6B, with full-year net income guided to only $5.4B, below the expected $6B. A key highlight this quarter was the on-track improvement in PC business margins, with hopes for continued repair.

Regarding the market's top concern, AI GPU, the full-year revenue guide was raised to $5B+. Factoring in EPYC momentum, 2024 data center revenue likely reaches ~$12.7B. At a 25% operating margin, that implies ~$3.2B in operating income, reflecting very strong growth for AMD itself. Q3 still likely marks the first time data center quarterly revenue overtakes Intel.

Overall, the continued repair of PC business margins this quarter is commendable. However, for the market's most-watched AI GPU, management's 2025 guide fell short of expectations, relying heavily on second-half MI350 series shipments. Based on current guidance, 2025 non-GAAP net income is preliminarily estimated in the $7B-$8B range.

Originally published on the WeChat public account Eric有话说.